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The Non-Invasion of Ukraine
Our Reality-Denying Foreign Policy Class Loses Again
“We should also remember that we are only now enjoying some respite from a great pestilence and from war, to no small benefit of our estates and persons, and that it is right to employ these at home on our behalf, instead of using them on behalf of these exiles whose interest it is to lie as well as they can, who do nothing but talk themselves and leave the danger to others, and who if they succeed will show no proper gratitude, and if they fail will drag down their friends with them…
…That for the future, we do not enter into alliances, as we have been used to do, with people whom we must help in their need, and who can never help us in ours.” - First Speech of Nicias [Thucydides, 6.12-13]
Thus the great Athenian statesman Nicias argued against the disastrous Sicilian invasion, which cost Athens the flower of her military, her empire, and ultimately her walls.
It is quite hard to know where to begin on Ukraine. One can only unpack so much absurdity at once. I didn’t have a computer for the weekend, and suffice to say when I got it back yesterday my thoughts on Ukraine were made obsolete by the news that Russia recognized Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics. Russia will be providing them direct military assistance to guarantee their independence. And bear in mind, it was indeed, the state of Russia which did this, not simply Putin acting alone. Their Congress formally asked Putin to recognize these states on the ground that the Minsk agreements is not being followed.
So why did this happen? To put it simply, despite the fact that there is no chance that NATO would allow Ukraine to join, the Biden administration refuses to say that Ukraine won’t be admitted into NATO. This is literally an abstract made-up problem driven by such severe hubris that our foreign policy class is unwilling to negotiate with anyone ever. Further, though this has long been known to be true, new evidence has came out supporting Putin’s claim that the peaceful ending the Soviet Empire was indeed based on an understanding that NATO would not expand past the Elbe, something which has obviously been flagrantly violated.
As someone who followed foreign policy very closely for many years until my attention was taken up by egregious attacks on my freedom at home, it is hard for me to even begin to explain a background on my view on this long-running conflict within Ukraine and everything else associated with it. For background in this matter I would point you to the late, great, Justin Raimondo’s excellent piece “A Monster Re-Awakens: The Rise of Ukrainian Fascism” In short, the Obama administration’s foreign policy blob empowered literal pro-Nazi partisans to overthrow a democratically elected European state.
Anyhow, We all watched the silliness of Biden predicting invasion day after day, and there is now no need to repeat that here, I can direct you to Matt Taibbi’s characteristically excellent piece “Another All-Time Media Faceplant” discussing the absurdity we have seen up to this point. Literally the only reason Putin made this decision is because the United States would not stop constantly harassing them over what had been a settled issue for seven years: seven years during which he chose to not do this exact thing, presumably in hope of improving relations with the Western powers.
And never forget, because history is a farce this time, not only is our president a literally demented stuffed corpse, Ukraine’s president is an actual TV comedian. Suffice to say, they may be a bit in over their head dealing with a leader who, for whatever problems he may have, is widely regarded as competent. Here is a hilarious tweet from two years to the day before Putin made this move, showing Biden’s completely delusional estimation of his own leadership skill:
Now, while you and I laugh at the idiot president, the Very Serious People of the world are most upset about the supposed violations of the border of Ukraine, our glorious ally who provides no military assistance, but many opportunities for corruption. Of course they don’t care about our borders, so it’s all a ridiculous and insulting pantomime. Perhaps it is more accurate to say they are comically impotent about the matter than that they are upset. Regardless, I won’t make you read the breathless op-eds from the scribbling class, but here are the people who pass at our rulers trying to act tough:
Joe Biden was as aggressive as he gets without saying he wants to take you out back and fight:
We haven’t heard anything new from Kamala Harris, but she presumably remains an equal amount coherent as she was on Sunday.
The great champion of human rights, Justin Trudeau also weighed in:
[It truly is incredible how despite knowing that these people have access to ludicrous amounts of power it is very difficult to find them even personally threatening.]
The most notable thing about this, to me, is that they seem to think they can control a vast country on what it considers vital matters with economic sanctions. Does anyone honestly believe that could work? I mean, the Castro regime still stands…
I will tell you though, I made a big fuck up when I was talking about the increasing diplomatic bluster, while not defining what it would mean for Russia to invade Ukraine. Donetsk and Lugansk have been independent for nearing a decade. They will call Russia recognizing these regions and sending in “peace-keeping” troops at the request of the governments which physically control the territory to be an invasion, but that is absolutely not what an invasion is. The fact is these areas have been out of Ukraine’s control for a whole eight years and this hasn’t been seriously militarily contested by the Ukrainian government.
Thus, the idea that they are part of Ukraine is a fiction. But we live in the empire of lies.
The United States foreign policy class is making the same mistake it always makes, which is believing it determines what is true regardless of the facts. During the Bush Administration the term “Reality-Based Community” as a derisive term for people who, well, believe in reality was famously brought into the political discourse by journalist Ron Suskind with the following quote:
“The aide said that guys like me were 'in what we call the reality-based community,' which he defined as people who 'believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality.' [...] 'That's not the way the world really works anymore,' he continued. 'We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors...and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do'.”
But reality will bite back, no matter how much these idiots think they can be the arbiter of global borders and create truth regardless of the facts. And the general facts are that a state is an organization which has a monopoly on violence within a defined territory and whom regulates when it is legal to kill another person. Yes, there are often disputed territories, but this is the fact that is genuinely being disputed, not what lines US government cartographers draw. And by holding their territory for this long, it is clear that these breakaway Republics in former east Ukraine are indeed states with the right to invite the aid of a neighboring military. That simply isn’t an invasion.
I am reminded of a time when I was a much younger man, during the so-called Russo-Georgian War when a corrupt Ivy educated thug former Georgian President Saakashvili brutally attacked long-time independent republics Abkhazia and South Ossetia and tried to make them part of Georgia for the first time since the fall of the USSR. [Curiously, he was made governor of Odessa, Ukraine while in exile, and is somehow still being rewarded by Ukraine while in prison, and “coincidentally” started a hunger strike yesterday.] Amidst all the lies, there happened to be one American family from the region who made it on TV, and a little girl explained directly that Georgia was attacking and Russia saved them.
[Also, that intrepid little girl who had such an impact on me and whose courage I always so admired, is now some sort of gorgeous lifestyle influencer on social media, here is Amanda Kokoeva’s instagram, I share this both because she’s hot now and to demonstrate she is indeed a real person of the Ossetian ethnicity.]
The takeaway is that these people are full of shit. A most cursory understanding of the situation would make it obvious that Georgia was the aggressor, being as those places had been under pro-Russian governments for decades and Georgia had completely lacked territorial control. But Georgia attacks, Russia defends them, and in the Western press that is Russian aggression. And of course this is before the insane Trump-Era Russia lies which I will not even try to summarize here.
So where does this leave us? Basically, this means absolutely nothing to the people of the United States. It’s just another joke at the expense of our incompetent rulers. They somehow thought this would be a win for them and in reality they’ve just made Ukraine permanently smaller. There is nothing they can do, there is absolutely no public support from the West to support a meaningful war in Ukraine, and no one will concentrate their troops in that region well enough to remove the Russians. And of course attacks can’t be launched on Russian soil due to their weapons capabilities over Western Europe.
But our government certainly looks stupid. And they’re pushing Russia and China into an alliance, the avoiding of which has been a fundamental US foreign policy goal for some 50 years. With the combined resources, economic power, population, and trade relationships between those countries, Western economic power is almost instantly vestigial and will soon die out. And with it this regime where these idiot neo-liberals think they can saber rattle all day and the accomplish their goals by sanctions alone.
Don’t believe the media that an invasion of Ukraine has occurred. Some states which needed each other simply combined for a mutual benefit [Russia for its buffer, Donetsk and Lugansk for military protection.] If you think this was an invasion you are believing the reality which the empire has created. These things being frozen conflicts was pointless, but the Biden administration did an incredible job of creating this pathetic diplomatic embarrassment which runs directly counter to US foreign policy. The most absurd part is that recognition of Russian control of Crimea [which by every conceivable definition except “The West creates reality” is part of Russia] was the best card the West ever had and they refused to put it on the table. [They sure freaked out when occasional realist Trump suggested even using the card.] This despite the fact that that the US has absolutely no reasonable way to have Crimea returned to Ukraine, and that as a warm water port is life for Russia, every Russian patriot would die to save Sevastopol. Whereas alternately, almost no citizen of any country in the West knows what that is or why he should care.
Biden’s bluster having brought our nation to yet another humiliating defeat in the diplomatic arena, the one thing we have going for us is we can choose to not involve our military in helping Ukraine- and that basically have to make that choice. There is nothing to be done and no willpower or money to do it. Biden certainly isn’t selling the country or probably even the military on following him into a real war on the other side of the world with a major military power—never forget our foreign policy class are the same idiots who suffered an unconditional defeat by the Taliban.
Maybe this is the beginning of the end of spilling our blood and treasure over nonsense, having finally got in a situation where it isn’t possible to help a useless ally because the diplomatic bluster has been called and countered. I don’t think you or I really have anything to be worried about, but damn, does this make our government look like a bunch of assholes who cause problems and then can’t back people up. Maybe someday they will learn the severe limits of sanctions as a primary foreign policy tool. Surely, if that happens it will be the next generation of leaders, as this generation of political leaders hasn’t had new tricks in 30 years, their usual ones have just become more absurd and severe.