Senegal Comes Back From the Brink

W. Africa's Strongest Democracy Emerges From Years of Trouble

“It was Rome’s greatest good fortune that its kings quickly became corrupt, so that they were driven out, and long before their corruption had passed into the heart of the city; this lack of corruption was the reason why the countless disturbances that took place in Rome never caused any harm, but rather, benefited the republic, given that those men had good aims.” - Machiavelli [Discourses, I.17]

Senegal’s outgoing President Macky Sall [center] flanked by opposition leader Ousmane Sonko [left] and President-Elect Bassirou Diomaye Faye [right.] Both men were imprisoned until an amnesty less than two weeks before the election.

On Sunday, March 24th the West African nation of Senegal held its Presidential election. Senegal, long seen as a bastion of peace, stability, and democratic governance in West Africa, had suffered under three years of violent instability primarily relating to a conflict between incumbent President Macky Sall and opposition leader Ousmane Sonko. This period of troubles saw Sonko imprisoned and his party, PASTEF, disbanded as Sall considered a legally questionable third term and then tried to postpone the elections. However, the Senegalese people are uncorrupted, jealous of their liberty, true believers in their country, and they could not be defeated so easily. Perhaps more importantly, Senegal’s institutions and separation of powers are strong: though Sonko was prosecuted and barred from running, a delayed election was too much for Senegal’s Constitutional Council, which demanded that Sall’s government hold elections immediately. Further, Senegal is the only country in West Africa to never have a successful coup or a rebellion reach the capital, and the military has a firm tradition of respecting civilian rule, severely limiting Sall’s ability to fight the courts. Seeing the danger that he would live on in infamy, Sall engineered a pre-election amnesty for both the opposition and the government, and Sonko and his fellow opposition leader, Presidential candidate Bassirou Diomaye Faye were let out of jail ten days before the election.

Sonko had endorsed Faye for President earlier in the year, with many considering the situation to be that Faye was running in his place. Sall’s party ran his picked successor, the Prime Minister Amadou Ba, and there were also 17 minor candidates on the ballot. Faye, a former public sector union leader with no electoral experience, won in the first round with 54% of the vote to Ba’s 35%. The President-Elect, who turned 44 the day after the election, will become Africa’s youngest elected head of state, on a very young continent plagued by elderly rulers. It was previously thought the election would be close and go to a second round, but the Senegalese made their position clear, and the minor candidates rapidly conceded, followed by Bo and Sall acknowledging Faye’s victory. While Faye will have many challenges to face, including widespread poverty, rapid population growth, regional terrorism, and finding Senegal’s place on a continent where French influence has collapsed, the country is back on track and he has a clear mandate to rule, recognized by all political groups within the country. Alioune Tine of the Senegalese think tank Afrikajom Center told the Associated Press, “From prison to the presidential palace. The only country in Africa capable of withstanding a disease of its democracy that has shaken all its institutions, profoundly shaken its society, only to recover from it.” Indeed, Senegal provides an incredible story of a state enduring discord and coming out the other side, hopefully better than it started.

Senegal has not had a “perfect” post-Colonial history, and was long under one-party rule, but has generally been peaceful, always had civil government, and political violence has mostly been limited to a low-level insurgency in the southern part of the country, which is now primarily just banditry. However, when Ousmane Sonko became popular following his third place finish in the last election, it seems that Sall felt threatened by the young(er) upstart who was seen as an incorruptible anti-establishment figure. It needs to be noted that as Senegal does have strong institutions, we can’t be sure how much control President Sall had regarding prosecutions against Sonko. For his part, Sall generally took the stance that there is an independent judiciary which must be able to do its work. One way or another, the short version of the story is that Sonko was convicted of both defamation for a corruption accusation against a government official [which can be a criminal matter in Napoleonic legal systems] as well as a sexual assault charge which later became “Corrupting the youth” because the woman in question was 19, and that statute can apply until the age of 20. In neither case is it possible for me to ascertain the validity of the charges or if they were politically motivated, but the general feeling was that the purpose was to derail his political career. The opposite happened, and large protests in defense of Sonko rocked the country, but ultimately he was taken into custody and his party was disbanded for their role in inciting riots [which it is fair to say they more or less did, in order to defend Sonko from the government.] I wrote a background last Spring which you can read if you are so inclined:

What has confounded me throughout this is why Sall would want to continue to rule Senegal beyond the accepted two terms. He had a fair legal argument- that the Senegalese didn’t buy- that since the constitution changed he was allowed a third term as he had only served one under the new constitution. None of Senegal’s allies in the “international community” wanted this, and the Biden Administration figured that somebody “Better Call Sall” and quietly employed Barack Obama to try to talk him out of it. It seemed as if the situation was over when he announced he wouldn’t seek a third term, but the Senegalese government continued to suppress the opposition. Then Sall made the unprecedented move of trying to postpone the election until December of 2024, which the court didn’t let him do. I suppose it is true what Machiavelli says,

“In the end almost all men, deceived by a false good and a false glory, allow themselves, either willingly or through ignorance, to pass into the ranks of those who deserve more blame than praise…they turn to tyranny, failing to realize how much fame, how much glory, how much honour, security, tranquillity, and peace of mind they are losing through this choice, and how much infamy, disgrace, blame, danger, and anxiety they incur.” [Discourses, I.10]

Though men are drawn to power, in Sall’s case it is really incredible that he would go to all of this trouble, because Senegal has oil and gas production coming online, and Sall is a geological engineer by trade who came up in government through the natural resources ministries. This is to say, the man can make an outrageous fortune relatively honestly in retirement because he is legitimately qualified for high-level private oil positions and also knows most of the world leaders. Further, besides all of his actions which seem targeted at maintaining power, he hadn’t done anything which should put him at risk of prosecution in retirement. For Sall’s part, he insists he has done nothing wrong, being as the legislature voted to delay the election, and he further says they are the ones who asked him to proceed that way in the first place, because of concerns about who was eligible. There is a chance that some observers are falling into the trap of thinking that the President controls everything in the state, but Sall clearly played a role in the last few years of oppression, one way or another.

The public of Senegal never bought that Ousmane Sonko, a tax inspector known for his honesty, humble lifestyle, and youthful good looks, was a rapist or lying about government corruption. It seems as if he only got more support through all of his struggles with the government, which included a mob surrounding his home to prevent his arrest while police also surrounded the home keeping him on informal house arrest. Every time the situation moved forward protests erupted. Overall, the years of protests and government suppression of those protests left around 60 people dead. With Sonko disqualified and PASTEF disbanded, it was left to Faye, a long-time PASTEF functionary, to become a leader. Running as an independent candidate but endorsed by Sonko and the remnant of the PASTEF, the public threw in with him quickly. He campaigned on the slogan “Faye is Sonko,” expressed in Wolof, the most widely spoken native language in Senegal. Pictures of both men were commonly seen at campaign events. Sonko and Faye are similar men in many ways, both are tax inspectors, and both are in their 40s, from peripheral areas of the country, and have two wives [which is common in many regions of Africa.] However, unlike Sonko who was the mayor of his small city, Faye has never held elected office.

It is interesting that both work as tax inspectors. Though American liberals would like to portray it as a unique selfishness of Americans to hate paying taxes, tax collectors are generally unpopular everywhere. Adam Smith explained why this makes it important to have a clear taxation structure, writing, “The uncertainty of taxation encourages the insolence and favours of corruption of an order of men who are naturally unpopular, even where they are neither insolent nor corrupt” [The Wealth of Nations, V.II.II.] There are two things which I would take from these tax inspectors becoming populist leaders. The first of which is that they are truly seen as incorruptible- Sonko did rise to prominence after acting as a whistleblower regarding offshoring money in 2016. Perhaps more importantly, this demonstrates the extent to which the Senegalese are “bought in” to their state. It is a major problem across post-colonial Africa that some or all of the public don’t feel like the owners of their states [and often in many ways aren’t.] That tax inspectors are seen as devoted civil servants shows something about the public’s view of their relationship to the government. I’m pretty sure that in America ever having worked for the IRS is functionally a lifetime ban on being elected to office unless your entire shtick is campaigning against the IRS. Either way, Sonko said that Faye “is probably even more honest than me,” and Faye opened up his personal finances, showing that he has $6,600 in savings, which is respectable in a nation with a GDP per capita of around $1,600, but still far from being wealthy. it needs to be noted that roughly 75% of Senegal’s population is 35 or under, so just by being 43 and having a civil service career he would tend to be relatively more financially comfortable than most of the public. It seems clear that neither Faye nor Sonko have grown rich from corruption. My friend Borso Tall, a leading Senegalese freelance journalist, was on DW explaining the challenges that Faye will face in pulling Senegal back together, and why they have faith in his honesty:

Despite that Faye is seen as a stand-in for Sonko, it is a mistake to view this as a situation where Faye will be Sonko’s puppet. For one thing, Sonko is in the open and is a popular figure, not a shady financier behind the throne. Perhaps more importantly, Sonko has no official position and no institutional power, so he lacks the ability to control Faye besides through persuasion and the force of his popularity and personality, while Faye controls the Presidency. Faye will be taking power on April 2nd, when Sall’s mandate ends. The short transition is due to the delayed election. It will be less than a month after Faye was released from nearly a year’s imprisonment without being convicted of any crime, certainly a stunning example of the vagaries of Fortune of those who play politics.

Sonko, Faye, and the political movement they lead is primarily seen as populist, anti-corruption, and independent. Faye of course speaks of the importance of bringing the country back together after a divisive three years and rebuilding faith in the institutions, but there are other important matters at hand. Though Senegal is usually peaceful and there has been solid economic growth under Sall, much of the country is left behind and even some who get a college degree find themselves unemployed for years. It needs to be remembered that Africa has a shockingly low percentage of the population in formal employment, and Senegal is no exception. However, the three main things which are seen as Faye’s most important positions to the outside world are as follows:

1. Developing a national currency or reforming the CFA Franc, the neo-colonial currency of the region.

2. Negotiating the withdrawal of French troops from the country while continuing to work with the outside world.

3. Reviewing Senegal’s resource contracts to ensure that oil and gas coming online sufficiently benefits the public and encourages economic development.

I am positive about all of these goals. The knee-jerk reaction of many readers would perhaps be that these policies would draw unremitting hostility from France and the United States. I don’t think this is true. While France and the United States may be cynical and greedy powers, they also rely on people believing in them. France has left almost nothing but devastation in its wake in Francophone Africa, while things in Africa are going so badly for the United States that the Biden Administration is trying to cozy up to the brutal dictator of Equatorial Guinea just to have an ally despite trying to claim that democracy and human rights are a priority. Senegal provides these countries with their only chance to show an alternative model to the coups which have swept the region and demonstrate that even in the face of challenges, civil democratic governance remains possible in Francophone West Africa. This is, in my view, worth more to them than anything they could gain by stationing troops in or further exploiting Senegal. There is only one opportunity for a model government showing the things these powers pretend to care about can work, and it is Senegal. Further, the CFA Franc issue would take years to negotiate if it were to be done in a responsible way, so that is a problem for another day. More importantly, France is already looking to remove its 350 remaining troops from Senegal as it accepts the failure of a militarized approach to Africa, so this is not likely to cause serious problems between the countries. This actually works out quite well for France, especially compared to leaving Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger in disgrace, as they can say that Senegal weathering the recent instability demonstrates it doesn’t need the support of its former colonial power, while they could maintain an agreement that troops could return in the future if the countries agree it is necessary.

More important than the CFA Franc or the French military are agreements about the oil which is coming online, which Faye hopes to renegotiate. It’s true that France never stopped looting Africa, but things are changing whether they want them to or not. 50 or even 30 years ago France might have done an assassination or coup on the continent if oil revenues were threatened, but there are other factors at play now. Most important is that Senegal is a source of migrants to Europe and the United States due to poverty, and regardless of one’s opinions on immigration or culture, it’s objectively true that Africa’s enormous population growth will sink other countries with the volume of migrants if economic development does not come to Africa. There is plenty of profit to go around, and with wise leadership Senegal’s oil revenues can be managed in such a way that encourage domestic refining and manufacturing and mutually beneficial economic growth. This would keep Senegal’s population in their own country which they would generally prefer to stay in were there opportunities. On top of this, quite a lot of Senegalese die trying to leave the country in unsafe vessels, so there are strong humanitarian reasons to want to end this migration. Under good management Senegal can become a model for economic development on the African continent, something which Africa, and the world generally, desperately needs.

Supporters of Faye and Sonko at a rally before the election.

We can’t be sure how Faye’s time as President will go, and he does not have a party to control the legislature, but the preservation of democracy in Senegal is an overwhelmingly good thing. In many ways democracy has grown discredited as a concept, including to many in “the West.” This is because in these countries a narrow group of incompetent intellectual elites is presenting a sort of “managed” democracy where they expect us to follow despised leaders who do little but manage the decline of our once-great countries. If a genuinely popular candidate takes power it is described as a Russian plot or the result of misinformation and the evils of the general public. There are rarely decisive elections, for example Macron got just under 28% in the first round of the 2022 French Presidential elections, whereas Faye got over 54% in the first round of Senegal’s election having just gotten out of jail, barely having an opportunity to campaign, and by all other accounts having his candidacy suppressed. Everyone in Senegal recognizes that Faye has a legitimate mandate to lead Senegal forward.

The reality is that a form of government is as good as what it gets you: there is no inherent benefit to the form of electoral democracy if it does not serve the public. For example, if people are happy under a long-time strongman, elections may serve no purpose but as a sort of feedback for the government, and it can be fine if that public likes it. Montesquieu noted that though there has been a great deal discussion of liberty, there is perhaps no word where people have agreed on its meaning less. He writes that this is because different peoples have different values, and “they have all applied the name of liberty to the government most suitable to their own customs and inclinations” [I.XI.] In Senegal’s case, a democratic and egalitarian country is what the population values. Senegal’s unique culture within Africa is sometimes credited to the predominance of Sufi Islam and the power that Sufi brotherhoods have within society as moderating civil organizations. Perhaps it is several things, but under democratic governance is how the Senegalese want to live, even, or especially, in an era where military government is increasingly popular across the Sahel.

I generally avoid taking sides on foreign elections, but will say if I was Senegalese I certainly would have voted for Faye, not only because I broadly agree with his positions, but more importantly because the actions of Sall’s government over the last 3 years had to be repudiated, and they have been. There is a fallacious view held by many that a sort of bureaucratic “liberal democracy” such as the European Union is the “end of history.” There are others who have held to a more classic view, that there is a “cycle of constitutions,” as was famously laid out in the sixth book of Polybius. Machiavelli’s greatest innovation in political theory was the idea that conflict within a republic is inevitable, and even good for liberty, writing, “In every republic there are two different tendencies, that of the people and that of the upper class…all laws which are passed in favour of liberty are born from the rift between the two” [Discourses, I.4.] Senegal has now gone through disturbances caused by this conflict, and Faye has a clear mandate to make Senegal a better and more free country than it has ever been before. It is an inspiring occurrence in a time where free government seems to be retreating everywhere, often simply fading into a rigid, elitist technocracy. Senegal has shown the world that real wins for the people are still possible The whole world could learn something from the determination of the Senegalese people to save their freedom.

Faye still has the challenges of ruling, but the future looks bright. As they say in Senegal’s Wolof language, “Ci kaw ci kanam,” or in English, “Higher and forward.” Godspeed, Senegal!

Thank you for reading! The Wayward Rabbler is written by Brad Pearce. If you enjoyed this content please subscribe and share. My main articles will always be free but paid subscriptions help me a huge amount. I also have a tip jar at Ko-Fi. I am now writing regularly for The Libertarian Institute. My Facebook page is The Wayward Rabbler. You can see my shitposting and serious commentary on Twitter @WaywardRabbler.